SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “#SionyPH” (ATSANI)
ISSUED BY DOST PAGASA AT 5:00 AM, 05 November 2020
SIONY IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON STRAIT.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” will accelerate towards the west or west-northwest in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of “SIONY” will likely pass over (landfall) or near (close approach) the vicinity of Batanes or Babuyan Islands tomorrow morning or noon. After leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday afternoon or evening, this tropical cyclone is forecast to turn towards the southwest on Saturday morning and accelerate over the West Philippine Sea towards the general direction of central or southern Vietnam.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to reach typhoon category with a peak intensity of 120 km/h by tomorrow morning as it passes near or over the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area. After exiting the PAR, “SIONY” will gradually weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions over the West Philippine Sea associated with a northeasterly surge.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 595 km East of Basco, Batanes(19.8°N, 127.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Southwestward at 10 km/h.
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 140 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes (20.0°N, 123.2°E)
• 48 Hour (Saturday morning):300 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.2°N, 119.2°E)
• 72 Hour (Sunday morning): 620 km West Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.0°N, 115.0°E)
• 96 Hour (Monday morning):1,395 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (13.5°N, 108.3°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Balintang Isl., Babuyan Isl., Didicas Isl., and Camiguin Isl. including their adjoining islets)
TCWS 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
The rest of Babuyan Islands,
The northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes),
The northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan),
The northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)