TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 5 ☔
Tropical Storm #KardingPH
Issued at 11:00 AM, 23 September 2022
 
“KARDING” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm KARDING was estimated based on all available data at 1,085 km East of Northern Luzon (17.7°N, 132.0°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement
Westward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 130 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Saturday evening through early morning: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, and Isabela.
• Rest of Sunday through Monday early morning: Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Provinces, and La Union. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the northern portion of Aurora and the rest of Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley.
• Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Southwest Monsoon partly influenced by KARDING, occasional rains are also possible beginning Sunday over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, especially over their western sections. As such, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals may be hoisted as early as tonight over the eastern portions of Northern and Central Luzon in anticipation of winds of at least strong breeze to near gale strength associated with the approaching tropical cyclone.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 2. However, the potential for hoisting a Wind Signal No.3 is not ruled out at this time.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A preceding northeasterlies may bring moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.5 m) over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon by tomorrow. On Sunday, moderate to rough seas will continue for the seaboards of Northern Luzon (1.2 to 4.0 m) and may begin prevailing over the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (1.2 to 3.0 m) due to the approaching tropical storm. Such condition may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to monitor for updates, take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions during the said period.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KARDING is forecast to track generally westward while gradually accelerating towards the east coast of Northern Luzon, where it is likely to make landfall on Sunday morning. After crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon throughout Sunday, the tropical cyclone will continue tracking over the West Philippine Sea.
• This tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually intensify within the period prior to landfall over Northern Luzon. Per latest intensity forecast, it is likely to make landfall as a high-end tropical storm or a low-end severe tropical storm. Frictional effects of the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon may result in some slight weakening, although KARDING will most likely be at tropical storm category once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

 

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11 FOR TYPHOON “#BisingPH” (SURIGAE)

Issued at 5:00 AM, 19 April 2021

TYPHOON “BISING” TURNS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.

• The typhoon is forecast to maintain its current intensity in the next 12 to 24 hours before gradually weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Location of eye/center

At 4:00 AM today, the center of the eye of Typhoon “BISING” was located based on all available data at 250 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.1°N, 126.5°E).

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 240 km/h.

Movement

Moving North Northwestward at 10 km/h.

Forecast Positions

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 300 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 510 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.4°N, 126.3°E)

• 48 Hour (Wednesday morning):430 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (16.9°N, 125.7°E)

• 72 Hour (Thursday morning): 405 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.0°N, 125.3°E)

• 96 Hour (Friday morning):505 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.7°N, 126.8°E)

• 120 Hour (Saturday morning):965 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes (22.2°N, 131.1°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

• LUZON: Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagnay, San Jose, Lagonoy), the eastern portion of Albay (Tiwi, Malinao, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Rapu-Rapu, Legazpi City, Manito), and the eastern and central portions of Sorsogon (Castilla, Sorsogon City, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Casiguran, Juban, Magallanes, Bulan, Bulusan, Irosin, Santa Magdalena, Matnog) Northern

• VISAYAS: Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) • LUZON: The eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Dinapigue), the northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag), the southeastern portion of Quezon (Guinayangan, Calauag, Tagkawayan) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, and Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and the northern portion of Cebu (Tabogon, Borbon, San Remigio, Bogo City, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan and Camotes Islands

• MINDANAO: Dinagat Islands, Siargao Islands, and Bucas Grande Islands Hazards affecting land areas Heavy Rainfall • Today, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains will be experienced over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and Leyte. • Tomorrow (20 April), moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Bicol Region and Northern Samar.

• Tropical cyclone winds of at least strong breeze to near gale in strength extend outward up to 440 km from the center of the typhoon. Destructive typhoon-force winds extend outward up to 110 km from the center of the typhoon.

• In the next 24 hours, the northeasterly wind flow enhanced by the typhoon will also bring strong breeze to near gale conditions with higher gusts over most of Northern Luzon, Aurora, and the rest of Quezon that are not under any Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS). Such conditions are more likely to occur in the coastal and mountainous areas. Hazards affecting coastal waters In the next 24 hours, under the influence of Typhoon “BISING” and an enhanced northeasterly wind flow, the following sea conditions will be experienced over the coastal waters of the country:.

• Very rough to very high seas will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Luzon (5.0 to 12.0 m) and rough to very high seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (2.5 to 7.0 m). Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters.

• Rough to very rough seas over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon (2.5 to 5.0 m) and the eastern seaboard of Caraga (2.5 to 4.5 m) and rough seas over the remaining seaboards of localities where wind signals are in effect and the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental (2.5 to 4.0 m). Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.

• Moderate to rough seas over the western seaboard of Central Luzon (1.2 to 3.0 m). Mariners of small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over these waters. Inexperienced mariners of these vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. Track and Intensity Outlook

• On the forecast track, Typhoon “BISING” will move generally northward or north northwestward until Wednesday (21 April) evening or Thursday (22 April) early morning. Afterwards, the typhoon will move northeastward throughout Thursday and east northeastward on Friday (23 April) away from the landmass of Luzon.

Source: DOST PAGASA

 

 

Update for TS Siony (Atsani) as of 5 AM November 6, 2020

THE CENTER OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “SIONY” IS LIKELY TO PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER ITBAYAT ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
 
Track and intensity outlook:
 
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to make landfall or close approach over Batanes (more likely in the vicinity of Itbayat Island) within the next 2 to 3 hours as it continues to move west-northwestward. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It will then turn southwestward tomorrow morning over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea towards the Paracel Islands area.
 
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to either maintain its current strength or slightly intensify to 100 km/h within the next 24 hours. Beyond this 24-hour window, the storm is forecast to significantly weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with a surge of the northeasterlies over the West Philippine Sea. It may be downgraded to a Low Pressure Area on Monday.
 
 
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 60 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes or 70 km East of Itbayat, Batanes (20.7°N, 122.5°E).
 
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
 
Movement: Moving Westward at 20 km/h.
 
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 265 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (22.1°N, 119.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Sunday morning): 570 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.9°N, 116.5°E)
• 72 Hour (Monday morning): 770 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (18.2°N, 113.3°E)
 
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon:
Batanes and Babuyan Islands
 
 
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon:
The northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes),
 
The northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan),
 
The northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)
 
 
Other tropical systems being monitored (as of 4:00 AM today)
• The Low Pressure Area outside the PAR was estimated at 1,515 km East of Mindanao (10.1°N,139.3°E). It is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward and may enter the PAR this afternoon or evening. It is heading towards the direction of Eastern Visayas and may likely reach the area tomorrow afternoon or evening. This weather disturbance may develop into Tropical Depression “TONYO” within the next 48 to 72 hours.
 
 
 

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #5
FOR: TROPICAL STORM “#SionyPH” (ATSANI)
ISSUED BY DOST PAGASA AT 11:00 AM, 03 November 2020

“SIONY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to move slowly or almost stationary in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the tropical storm will move generally westward towards Extreme Northern Luzon. A landfall scenario over Batanes-Babuyan Islands area around Friday remains likely. However, due to the projected quasi-stationary state of this tropical storm, there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast track.

• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to intensify into severe tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours. Intensification into Typhoon is likely on Thursday prior to close approach or landfall over Extreme Northern Luzon.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 565 km East of Basco, Batanes(20.2°N, 127.4°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.

Movement: Moving East Northeastward Slowly

Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 740 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.7°N, 128.5°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday morning):445 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.2°N, 125.7°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday morning): 160 km West Southwest of Basco, Batanes (20.0°N, 120.5°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday morning):625 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.4°N, 116.0°E)
• 120 Hour (Sunday morning):995 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (19.6°N, 112.0°E)

Update for TS Siony (Atsani) as of 11:00 PM, November 2, 2020
Valid until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM, November 3, 2020

“SIONY” CONTINUES TO DECELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.
NO TCWS raised

Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to gradually enter into a quasi-stationary state in the next 36 hours. Afterwards, the tropical storm will move generally westward towards Extreme Northern Luzon. A landfall scenario over Batanes-Babuyan Islands area around Friday remains likely. However, due to the projected quasi-stationary state of this tropical storm in the next 36 hours, there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast track.

• Intensity: “SIONY” is likely remain within tropical storm category within the next 36 hours. Intensification into a severe tropical storm is likely on Wednesday and into a Typhoon on Thursday prior to close approach or landfall over Extreme Northern Luzon.

Location of eye/center:
• At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 605 km East of Basco, Batanes (19.8°N, 127.7°E).

Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving Northward Slowly

Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 705 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.1°N, 128.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Wednesday evening): 665 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.3°N, 127.8°E)
• 72 Hour (Thursday evening): 225 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.3°N, 123.6°E)
• 96 Hour (Friday evening): 360 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.4°N, 118.5°E)
• 120 Hour (Saturday evening): 830 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.2°N, 114.0°E)

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #2
FOR: TROPICAL STORM “#SionyPH” (ATSANI)
ISSUED BY DOST PAGASA AT 11:00 PM, 01 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow)

“#SionyPH” SLIGHTLY WEAKENS BUT REMAINS WITHIN TROPICAL STORM CATEGORY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: The center of Tropical Storm “SIONY” is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward tonight through tomorrow evening before slows down significantly and becomes almost stationary tomorrow evening through Tuesday evening.
Afterwards, “SIONY” will begin tracking west-southwestward or westward towards Extreme Northern Luzon.
Due to the projected erratic movement of this system in the next 48 hours, there is high degree of uncertainty in the forecast track.

• Intensity: “SIONY” is likely remain within tropical storm category within the next 36 to 48 hours. It may intensify to severe tropical storm category during the period when it becomes almost stationary on Tuesday.

Hazards affecting land areas and coastal waters:
“SIONY” remains less likely to directly affect the weather and coastal water conditions in the country over the next 2 to 3 days. However, the public and disaster managers, especially those situated in Northern Luzon, are advised to continue monitoring for updates on this tropical cyclone.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 990 km East of Northern Luzon (17.0°N, 131.0°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h.

Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 770 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.9°N, 128.9°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday evening):780 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.6°N, 129.0°E)
• 72 Hour (Wednesday evening): 415 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (17.7°N, 125.5°E)
• 96 Hour (Thursday evening):85 km West Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (18.4°N, 119.8°E)
• 120 Hour (Friday evening):670 km West of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR) (19.7°N, 115.1°E)

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #1
FOR: TROPICAL STORM “#SionyPH” (ATSANI)
ISSUEDBY DOST PAGASA AT 11:00 AM, 01 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
 
TROPICAL STORM “SIONY” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AND IS NOW INSIDE THE PHIILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).
 
• “SIONY” entered the PAR at 8:00 AM today.
• It is forecast to move generally northwestward until Monday evening, then slowly west-southwestward by Tuesday.
• It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days.
 
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “SIONY” was estimated based on all available data at 1,365 km East of Central Luzon(16.0°N, 134.3°E).
 
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
 
Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h.
 
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 895 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.0°N, 130.1°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):785 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes (18.9°N, 129.3°E)
• 72 Hour (Wednesday morning): 780 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (18.4°N, 128.8°E)
• 96 Hour (Thursday morning):530 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (17.7°N, 126.6°E)
• 120 Hour (Friday morning):40 km Southwest of Calayan, Cagayan (19.0°N, 121.2°E)
 
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL